Overview

• Peer-reviewed research in Nature Communications uses large climate-model ensembles to estimate the timing and likelihood of unprecedented tap-dry events.
• Simulations identify hotspots in the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of North America, with about 35% of drought-prone regions likely to face such episodes within 15 years.
• By century’s end, 74% of drought-prone regions face high risk of severe, persistent droughts under a high-emissions pathway.
• The study projects up to roughly 750 million people threatened by 2100, about two thirds in cities, with urban exposure especially high in the Mediterranean where 196 million city residents are at risk.
• The analysis excludes groundwater, a vital drought buffer, so the authors present the timelines as guidance for planning rather than precise local forecasts.