Overview
- Peer-reviewed modeling from the University of the Sunshine Coast, published in Earth’s Future, projects that by about 2040 the average year will exceed the most extreme ocean conditions seen before 2015.
- Marine Protected Areas, which cover roughly half of Australia’s seven million square kilometers of ocean, are forecast to be as exposed as unprotected waters, with north‑western and eastern reserves among the most vulnerable.
- Areas expected to change most slowly are projected to shrink or disappear under higher emissions, with limited refuges persisting mainly along southern and south‑western coasts under lower‑emissions pathways.
- Marine species are already shifting poleward at about 59 kilometers per decade on average, while sessile and range‑limited species face heightened risk, including in Tasmania and the Gulf of Carpentaria.
- The authors urge deep emissions cuts and climate‑smart MPA design that links refugia, citing recent bleaching, fish kills and algal blooms as warnings, and note Australia’s 2035 target and the 2026 High Seas Treaty as relevant policy levers.