Study Suggests Faith Kipyegon Could Break 4-Minute Mile with Optimal Drafting

Researchers propose that strategic pacing and reduced air resistance could enable the Kenyan athlete to achieve the historic milestone.

Kenyan runner Faith Kipyegon, the current women's mile world record holder, is 3% shy of breaking the 4-minute barrier with her 2023 record of 4:07.64.
A study led by Professor Rodger Kram calculates that optimal drafting — with pacers positioned in front and behind Kipyegon — could cut air resistance by up to 76%.
Researchers predict that under ideal conditions, Kipyegon could complete the mile in 3:59.37, matching Roger Bannister's historic 1954 time.
The study emphasizes the need for staged pacing, with fresh pacers switching in at the halfway mark to maintain energy efficiency and drafting benefits.
The researchers hope their findings will inspire Kipyegon, her sponsors, and event organizers to stage a controlled exhibition race to test this prediction.