Overview
- A multi‑institution study published July 16 projects that ending the voluntary Soy Moratorium would cause about 1.4 million hectares of extra Amazon deforestation over the next 10 years and about 745 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent emissions.
- Researchers say the Moratorium cut high‑risk soy‑linked deforestation by roughly 35% in its first decade and avoided about 1.8 million hectares while allowing soy area to grow mostly on land already opened for farming.
- Legal uncertainty has grown after Abiove formally left the pact on January 5, mediation efforts failed in June, and the Supreme Federal Court has scheduled plenary hearings to begin on August 12 for four lawsuits challenging the agreement.
- The study identifies large areas at risk if the pact lapses, including about 9.1 million hectares of private forest with high soybean aptitude and up to 28.7 million hectares of undesignated public forest vulnerable to occupation and speculation.
- Authors and WWF‑Brasil warn that losing the Moratorium could hurt exports because major buyers require deforestation‑free supply chains and they recommend traceability, buyer restrictions, and incentives to steer expansion onto already‑opened lands.