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5mo ago

Study Reveals Earthquakes Can Significantly Obscure Underground Nuclear Test Signals

New research shows seismic masking can reduce detection success rates by up to 81%, raising concerns for global nuclear test monitoring systems.

Warning signs about radioactive materials erected at White Sands Missile Range following the detonation of the world's first atomic bomb in Socorro, New Mexico,
The Castle Bravo nuclear test, the detonation of the most powerful thermonuclear device ever tested by the United States.

Overview

  • Seismic signals from earthquakes can overlap with underground nuclear test signals, dropping detection rates from 97% to 37% when events occur within 100 seconds and 250 kilometers of each other.
  • Earthquake swarms and repeating seismic events can further reduce detection rates from 92% to as low as 16%.
  • The findings challenge a 2012 report that claimed earthquake signals could not obscure nuclear test signals, prompting a reassessment of monitoring methods.
  • Researchers used a waveform injection method to simulate explosion signals within real earthquake data, testing detection capabilities at the Nevada National Security Site.
  • While seismic monitoring remains critical under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), the study underscores the importance of integrating non-seismic indicators like radionuclide detection to enhance verification efforts.