Study Reveals Atlantic Hurricanes Rapidly Intensifying Due to Climate Change

Atlantic hurricanes now twice as likely to escalate to Category 3 within 24 hours, posing major challenges to accurate forecasting and evacuation planning; rising ocean temperatures cited as primary concern.

Hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean are now twice as likely to transform from a weak storm to a major Category 3 or higher hurricane within 24 hours, making it difficult for forecasters to predict impacts and order timely evacuations.
The study, published in Scientific Reports, draws from five decades of data and suggests that rapid-onset major hurricanes are increasingly frequent, with the period of 2001 to 2020 seeing an 8% chance of such rapid intensification compared to only a 3% chance from 1970 to 1990.
Contributing factors to the rapid intensification include rising ocean temperatures due to climate change – with the world's oceans absorbing more than 90% of excess heat trapped by greenhouse gas emissions – leading to a global average sea surface temperature increase of about 0.9 degrees Celsius since 1850.
The research reveals regional variations within the Atlantic, with more rapid intensification of storms observed along the eastern U.S. coast, the southern Caribbean, and the eastern Atlantic from 2001 to 2020 compared to 1970 to 1990. However, there appears to be less rapid intensification in the Gulf of Mexico compared to earlier years.
While acknowledging that factors other than climate change, such as decreased sulfate aerosol pollution following clean-air regulations, could influence hurricane behavior, the research nonetheless indicates a clear correlation between a warmer globe and the potential for more intense hurricanes.