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Study: Renewable Fuel Mandate Drives UK Petrol and Diesel Prices Higher

Analysis by Warwick’s CAGE centre shows the UK’s Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation has added an average of 3.5p per litre to petrol, six pence to diesel since 2021.

Overview

  • The 2025 CAGE study by Warwick University economists analysed five years of fuel data to quantify the RTFO’s contribution to consumer prices.
  • Researchers found rising ethanol costs and stricter blending targets have driven up petrol by 3.5p per litre and diesel by six pence.
  • Drivers now pay an average of 134.64p per litre for unleaded petrol and 141.95p for diesel, as tracked by RAC Fuel Watch.
  • E10 petrol, containing up to 10% ethanol, has been the UK standard fuel since 2021; non-compatible vehicles can still access E5 as a 97+ octane super grade.
  • Incorporating bioethanol under the RTFO has reduced fuel economy by around 1%, though the government considers the effect negligible for everyday driving.