Overview

• An ANU-led team published in npj Climate Action used the IPCC-aligned TCRE method to attribute project-level climate impacts for Woodside’s Scarborough gas development.
• The study estimates lifetime emissions of about 876 million tonnes of CO2 from Scarborough, translating to roughly 0.00039°C of additional global warming.
• Researchers project tangible harms including about 516,000 more people exposed to unprecedented heat, 356,000 pushed outside the human climate niche, 484 additional heat-related deaths in Europe by 2100, and roughly 16 million coral colonies lost per future Great Barrier Reef bleaching event.
• By 2049, anticipated Australian emissions from Scarborough would comprise about 49% of the nation’s annual CO2 budget, with post‑2050 emissions requiring durable removal to meet targets.
• Woodside disputes attributing climate impacts to a single project and says Scarborough’s direct emissions will be minimized through efficiency, while the paper and prior filings highlight limits and costs for scaling carbon capture and storage; the approved project is slated to start production in 2026 and run for more than 30 years.