Overview
- The preprint by Yifan He and colleagues estimates about a 4 percent probability that asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit the Moon on December 22, 2032.
- Models project energy on par with a medium-sized thermonuclear blast, carving a roughly 1 km-wide crater with an approximately 100 m molten pool.
- The collision would generate a magnitude ~5 moonquake and a plume of vaporized rock and plasma observable in detail, with the Pacific night side favored for viewing and JWST primed for infrared data.
- Simulations foresee spectacular meteor activity—hundreds of fireballs per hour—and up to about 400 kg of lunar debris surviving reentry, with likely fall zones in South America, North Africa, and the Arabian Peninsula.
- Researchers warn of heightened risk to satellite constellations and possible cascading debris, and report that agencies are weighing deflection options with no mission decision yet.