Overview
- An ETH Zurich–led paper in Nature Climate Change delivers the first per-glacier survival projections to 2100, using three global glacier models and a satellite-derived inventory of more than 200,000 glaciers.
- Under roughly 2.7°C warming consistent with current policies, about 97% of Central European glaciers are expected to vanish this century, with peak extinction in the region projected soon after 2025 and most losses within two decades.
- Globally, approximately 79% of glaciers are projected to disappear by 2100 at ~2.7°C, with annual losses peaking at around 3,000 per year between 2040 and 2060.
- Regional timing differs: the Pyrenees are projected to lose their remaining 15 glaciers by the mid‑2030s, Western Canada and the United States could lose 96% under ~2.7°C, and larger high‑latitude glaciers peak later in the century.
- Deep emissions cuts would preserve far more individual glaciers, reducing extinctions to about 55% at 1.5°C and capping peak annual losses near 2,000 before declining, with major implications for water resources, ecosystems and mountain economies.