Overview

• The Columbia University Uterine Cancer Model forecasts incidence among women aged 18–84 will climb by up to 53% by 2050 and mortality by as much as 98%.
• Black women face the steepest burden, with cases expected to jump 53% and deaths by 97.9%, compared with 28.6% and 83.6% for white women.
• Obesity and high consumption of ultra-processed foods are identified as principal risk factors, with excess weight linked to roughly one-third of UK cases.
• Researchers validated the UTMO against 2018 data and factored in trends like rising obesity and declining hysterectomy rates to project future disease trajectories.
• Model simulations show that a hypothetical screening test at age 55 could reduce uterine cancer incidence for up to 16 years in Black women and 15 years in white women.