Overview

• The preprint estimates about a 4% chance the roughly 55–60 meter asteroid will hit the Moon in 2032.
• Models indicate lunar ejecta could increase micrometeoroid flux in low Earth orbit by up to 1,000 times, posing hazards to satellites and astronauts.
• Large uncertainties in the asteroid’s mass and density complicate deflection planning, raising concerns that a miscalculated maneuver could worsen the risk to Earth.
• Researchers outline two theoretical options: fragment the object with a DART-like kinetic impactor launching between April 2030 and April 2032, or detonate a nuclear device with a launch window from late 2029 to late 2031.
• The study emphasizes these concepts are untested, notes a roughly 96% chance of no lunar impact, and calls for reconnaissance and engineering work to guide any future decision.