Overview

• A Nature Communications analysis from the IBS Center for Climate Physics projects that about 35% of drought‑prone regions could face unprecedented tap‑drying shortages within 15 years.
• Hotspots include the Mediterranean, southern Africa, parts of North America, India and northern China, and southern Australia, with some areas facing longer events and shorter recovery windows.
• Under a high‑emissions pathway, roughly 750 million people could be threatened by century’s end, including about 470 million in cities and 290 million in rural areas, with the Mediterranean showing the highest urban exposure.
• The modeling excludes groundwater, which can buffer shortages, and the authors stress the results are projections intended as guidance rather than precise predictions; they also estimate 14% of major reservoirs could run dry during their first event.
• The study urges faster decarbonization, stronger water governance such as leak repair and demand management, and caution on placing water‑intensive industries in stressed regions like Texas and Arizona.