Overview
- Published in Nature Climate Change on December 15, the analysis examines more than 200,000 glaciers from the Randolph Glacier Inventory using three glacier models and four warming pathways.
- It identifies a global peak in annual glacier extinctions between 2041 and 2055, with about 2,000 losses per year under 1.5°C warming and roughly 4,000 under 4.0°C.
- Regions dominated by small, low-elevation ice—especially the Alps, the Caucasus and the tropical Andes—are projected to lose the most early, with over half of Alpine glaciers vanishing within 10–20 years and a regional peak between 2033 and 2041.
- Projected end-of-century outcomes diverge sharply: about 96,000 glaciers remain under 1.5°C versus just over 18,000 under 4.0°C; disappearance is counted once area falls below 10,000 m² or 1% of the original extent.
- Recent observations underscore the acceleration, with Switzerland’s GLAMOS reporting a 3% mass loss in 2025, while the authors note modeling uncertainties and say present-day decisions will determine whether the mid-century peak is nearer 2,000 or 4,000 per year.