Overview

• The study analyzed 365 elections in 18 industrialized nations between 1948 and 2023 to assess the impact of economic conditions on voting behavior.
• A 10-percentage-point inflation shock during a legislative period, combined with stagnant real wages, is linked to a 2.8% rise in support for populist or extremist parties.
• Economic growth exceeding expectations or wage increases that offset inflation reduce the appeal of radical parties, the research shows.
• High inflation without corresponding wage adjustments has also been tied to an increase in public dissatisfaction, protests, and strikes.
• The findings help explain recent electoral gains for parties like Germany’s AfD and BSW, as well as broader global trends in populist support during economic crises.