Overview
- A National Bureau of Economic Research working paper by Caitlin K. Myers and Ezekiel Hooper estimates that iPhone diffusion from 2007 to 2011 may explain about 33% to 52% of the U.S. fertility decline over that period, with the largest proportional falls among teens and adults aged 20–24.
- The authors use Apple’s 2007–2011 exclusive deal with AT&T as a natural experiment, comparing areas with earlier iPhone access to areas with later access to estimate causal effects on local birth rates.
- The paper presents behavioral evidence that smartphones reduced face‑to‑face socializing, lowered partnered sexual frequency, and increased online pornography searches and access to contraceptive information, all of which could have cut pregnancies.
- The study is a working paper published in June 2026 and has not yet been peer reviewed, and outside experts warn of methodological concerns such as nonrandom rollout, preexisting fertility trends, and other drivers like housing costs and delayed childbearing.
- A separate cross‑country analysis of World Bank data finds teenage fertility fell after smartphone spread in many nations, raising policy questions about aging workforces, pension costs, and what interventions might alter long‑term family formation.