Study Links Emergency Department Overcrowding to Higher 28‑Day Mortality

Researchers presented evidence at the European Emergency Medicine Congress showing that rising ED occupancy is tied to higher short‑term death risk and is likely to increase pressure on ministers to cut corridor care through tested capacity and flow measures.

Overview

The research, presented in Paris on Thursday, analysed 19,034 patients seen at 134 emergency departments in England, Wales and Northern Ireland during periods in 2025.
Authors found departments were operating at about 175% occupancy on average and that each 10% rise in occupancy was associated with a 1% increase in the risk of death within 28 days.
When extrapolated nationally the study produced a central estimate of roughly 554 excess deaths per week but the authors report a wide plausible range of 33 to 1,083 and emphasise the work is observational, not proof of direct causation.
Treatment in non‑clinical spaces such as corridors showed a similar increase in risk and the research team published an online risk calculator to help staff estimate local patient risk from crowding.
The Royal College of Emergency Medicine called for urgent government action to reduce overcrowding while the Department of Health and Social Care pointed to recent four‑hour A&E performance, new capital investment and a pledge to end corridor care as steps being taken.