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Study Links Climate Change to Two-Thirds of 24,400 Summer Heat Deaths in European Cities

Rapid, not‑yet–peer‑reviewed modelling pairs city warming with mortality data to produce early country and city estimates.

Overview

  • Researchers estimate about 24,400 people died from extreme heat in summer 2025 across 854 cities, with roughly 16,500 attributable to human-caused warming.
  • Anthropogenic warming raised city temperatures by about 2.2°C on average, reaching up to 3.6°C in some locations, intensifying the lethality of heatwaves.
  • Older residents were most affected, with around 85% of the heat-related deaths occurring among people aged 65 and over.
  • Country and city counts include Italy 4,597, Spain 2,841, Germany 1,477; capitals saw 835 deaths in Rome, 630 in Athens, 409 in Paris, 387 in Madrid, 360 in Bucharest, 315 in London, and 140 in Berlin.
  • The analysis covers roughly 30% of Europe’s population and omits some regions, and the authors describe the figures as early model-based estimates; Germany’s RKI separately estimates about 2,600 heat deaths nationally through end‑August.