Overview
- Published in Communications Earth & Environment, the paper by Martin Bauch of the Leibniz Institute and Ulf Büntgen of the University of Cambridge integrates tree‑ring records, polar ice‑core sulfur and contemporaneous documents.
- Multiple proxies indicate a large, unidentified tropical eruption around 1345 followed by anomalously cold, wet summers across 1345–1347 in the Mediterranean.
- The cooling coincided with crop failures and famine that pushed Venice, Genoa and other ports to source grain via Black Sea routes overseen by the Golden Horde.
- Researchers contend grain shipping and storage created a pathway for Yersinia pestis as rats and fleas traveled on vessels and into European cities starting in 1347.
- The study aligns with genetic evidence pointing to Central Asian origins yet the authors and external experts, including Maria Spyrou, caution the route is plausible rather than proven.