Overview
- Latest estimates put the chance of a lunar strike at roughly four percent in December 2032, with Earth impact effectively ruled out.
- Modeling suggests a Moon impact by the ~60‑meter object could loft debris into Earth orbit, threatening the ISS, communications satellites and planned missions.
- The team favors “robust destruction” approaches, including a kinetic breakup or a nuclear standoff detonation, with calculations citing about a 1‑megaton yield at ~85 meters.
- A classical deflection is deemed impractical given large mass uncertainty and a tight launch window in mid‑2028, while an ideal reconnaissance mission would need to launch by late 2028.
- The proposals are preliminary and not peer‑reviewed, would require legal and funding decisions as well as international coordination, and trajectory refinements are expected with new observations around 2028.