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Study in Germany Links About 36% of Dementia Cases to Modifiable Risks

Modeling based on 2023 national survey data estimates that a 15–30% risk reduction could prevent roughly 170,000 to over 330,000 cases by 2050.

Immer mehr Menschen leben länger – und das Demenzrisiko steigt. Longevity-Expertin Nina Ruge zeigt, wie entscheidend frühe Prävention sein kann.
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Overview

  • Researchers from DZNE and Harvard combined German Age Survey 2023 prevalence data for 12 recognized risk factors with international relative-risk estimates to gauge national prevention potential.
  • The strongest contributors in Germany were depression, hearing loss, low education, overweight or obesity, and diabetes.
  • Four population risk profiles were identified—metabolic (~18%), sensory (~23%), alcohol (~24%), and low-risk (~36%)—with higher-risk clusters among older men, people with low education, and residents of eastern and rural regions.
  • Without targeted measures, dementia cases are projected to rise from about 1.8 million today to roughly 2.7 million by 2050, highlighting the stakes for prevention.
  • Authors advocate tailored, structural interventions such as improved access to hearing aids and mental-health care rather than broad-brush campaigns, and concrete policy actions have not yet been outlined.