Overview
- The Berlin‑Institut and Wüstenrot‑Stiftung published a study on Tuesday, October 6, 2026, projecting a national population drop from about 83.3 million in 2026 to roughly 81.8 million by 2045 and forecasting that about two‑thirds of Germany’s 400 counties and independent cities will lose residents.
- Major cities and some metro areas are projected to grow while many rural and eastern regions shrink, with Berlin expected to exceed four million people (+9.5%), the Dahme‑Spreewald district forecast to grow by about 17%, and several rural districts facing double‑digit declines.
- The number of people of working age is modeled to fall by about 4.7% nationwide by 2045 with much larger drops of 12–18% in places such as Thüringen, Sachsen‑Anhalt, Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern and the Saarland, intensifying regional labor shortages and competition for workers.
- Researchers built the projections from separate estimates of births, deaths and migration and evaluated regions with an index of 26 indicators across demography, economy, education and social conditions, noting that migration can ease but will not uniformly reverse regional losses under the model’s assumptions.
- Study authors and the Wüstenrot‑Stiftung urge active, regionally tailored policy to sustain local services — for example multifunctional village shops, health kiosks and citizen buses — while national political debate has started to respond but concrete federal reforms are not yet in place.