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Study: Geoengineering Won’t Reliably Safeguard Coffee, Chocolate, or Wine

Modeling for 2036–2045 shows cooling failed to stabilize rainfall or humidity, yielding consistent gains in only six of 18 key regions.

Overview

  • Peer-reviewed research published November 4 in Environmental Research Letters modeled stratospheric aerosol injection across leading growing zones in Western Europe, South America, and West Africa.
  • SAI lowered surface temperatures in simulations yet did not consistently preserve the combined temperature, rainfall, and humidity conditions required for wine grapes, coffee, and cacao.
  • Only six of 18 regions showed reliable improvement versus a scenario without SAI, indicating highly uneven regional outcomes.
  • Unpredictable rainfall and humidity drove flood, pest, and disease risks that undercut any cooling benefits, with cacao highlighted as especially susceptible, according to co-author Dr. Ariel Morrison.
  • Authors conclude SAI could offer temporary regional relief but is not a fix, urging locally tailored adaptation, resilient farming practices, and international cooperation.