Overview

• Nationwide Aedes aegypti density is projected to rise about 11% under a low‑emissions pathway and about 30% under a high‑emissions pathway by 2080.
• Hotspots identified in Brazil’s South and Southeast could see mosquito densities nearly double compared with 2024 levels.
• Modeled dengue transmission increases across the country, with the largest rise in the Southeast where mosquito population growth is expected to outpace human population growth.
• Projections cover 2024–2080 under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, incorporating temperature, rainfall, urban expansion and human–mosquito interaction in a delay‑differential life‑cycle model.
• Published in PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, the study reports that strong climate action could reduce the projected increases by roughly two‑thirds.