Overview
- The Climate Impact Lab published its analysis on Wednesday, Sept. 23, projecting roughly 450,000 to 451,000 additional heat-related deaths from September 2026 through February 2027 compared with a normal year.
- Researchers estimate global land temperatures will be about 1.2°C above the 1996–2025 baseline and that extremely hot days will rise roughly 44 percent, raising the risk of heat illness and death.
- The largest projected burdens fall in lower-income regions, with the Sahel about 66,800 extra deaths, Nigeria about 31,400, Indonesia about 19,300, Southeast Asia about 19,400, India about 15,800 (±1,600), and Brazil about 13,300.
- The World Meteorological Organization says El Niño is very likely to continue through February 2027, increasing the window for extreme heat in many regions and prompting some officials to mobilize emergency resources.
- The study’s authors and public-health experts say targeted actions—heat warnings, cooling centres, hydration points, protections for outdoor workers, and added hospital capacity—could prevent many of the forecasted deaths, though results will vary by local preparedness and uncertainty in the models.