Overview
- Researchers analyzed more than 210,000 glaciers in the Randolph Glacier Inventory under four warming scenarios of 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.7°C, and 4.0°C through 2100.
- Peak losses occur around 2041 with roughly 2,000 disappearances per year under 1.5°C, shifting to the mid‑2050s with about 4,000 per year under 4.0°C.
- Regions dominated by small glaciers—the Alps, the Caucasus, and the equatorial Andes—are projected to see the fastest and most extensive losses, with over half disappearing within the next two decades.
- Under a 2.7°C pathway, about 44,000 glaciers remain globally by 2100 with roughly 110 in Central Europe, whereas a 4.0°C outcome leaves a little over 18,000 worldwide and about 20 in Central Europe.
- The authors introduce the concept of “Peak Glacier Extinction,” define disappearance as shrinking below 10,000 m² or 1% of original area, and emphasize uncertainties tied to model assumptions and policy direction.