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Study Finds Rise in Early-Onset Cancer Diagnoses Reflects More Testing, Not More Deadly Disease

A new JAMA Internal Medicine analysis indicates intensified detection is inflating case counts in younger adults without a corresponding increase in deaths.

Image
(Photo by Mark Poprocki on Shutterstock)
A young woman sits alone in a hospital room.

Overview

  • Researchers examined the eight fastest-rising cancers in adults under 50 and found incidence roughly doubled since 1992 while mortality remained flat at 5.9 deaths per 100,000 through 2022.
  • Only colorectal and endometrial cancers showed increased mortality, with investigators citing obesity and fewer hysterectomies as contributors for endometrial risk and diagnostic mix shifts for colorectal cases.
  • Thyroid and kidney cancers posted sharp incidence gains alongside stable or falling death rates, consistent with overdiagnosis driven by more imaging and lower thresholds for labeling abnormalities as cancer.
  • Pancreatic, small intestine, myeloma, and anal cancers showed rising incidence without higher mortality, and breast cancer added large absolute case numbers even as deaths fell with improved therapy and earlier detection.
  • Screening ages have moved younger (45 for colorectal, 40 for breast), and experts caution that overdiagnosis can lead to unnecessary treatment and psychosocial and financial harms for younger patients.