Overview

• An ISTA-led study published Sept. 2, 2025 in Communications Earth & Environment reports a snow-driven shift in the Kyzylsu Glacier’s behavior.
• A climate station installed on the glacier in 2021 at roughly 3,400 meters provided rare observations that underpinned the modeling.
• Simulations identify a regime change around 2018 linked to declining snowfall, signaling the likely end of the glacier’s prior stability.
• Increased ice melt currently compensates for about one-third of water lost to reduced precipitation, offering only a transient boost to flows.
• The Kyzylsu catchment feeds the Amu Darya, and researchers caution the finding’s permanence and regional scope remain uncertain, adding that such melting will not refill what remains of the Aral Sea.