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Study Finds Near‑Earth Object KY26 Too Warm to Be a Comet

Thermal models point to sunlight-driven forces as the likeliest cause of KY26’s odd motion with a Hayabusa2 rendezvous set for 2031 to provide direct data.

Overview

  • Astronomers have measured 1998 KY26 accelerating in ways not explained by gravity alone, including a component perpendicular to its orbital plane.
  • A new paper in Icarus shows KY26’s coldest surface averages about −61°C, far warmer than the ≈−128°C needed to preserve buried water ice, making sustained outgassing unlikely.
  • The authors estimate that even if 1% of KY26’s mass were water ice it would be lost in roughly 2,000 years and any sublimation-driven thrust would last only about 62 years.
  • KY26 is a tiny fast rotator roughly 11 meters across that spins every 5.35–5.5 minutes, a combination that amplifies effects from solar radiation pressure and thermal-emission forces.
  • Japan’s Hayabusa2 is scheduled to rendezvous with KY26 in 2031 to make in‑situ measurements that can confirm its composition and settle which sunlight‑driven mechanism explains the anomalous motion.