Overview
- Analyzing NSASS data from 785 U.S. parents, researchers found 34% expect small-college play, 27% expect scholarships, and 17% expect pro or Olympic success, exceeding real-world odds such as roughly 7% advancing to college sports.
- Parental expectations tended to drop as children got older, and expectations were similar for boys and girls.
- Perceiving a strong athletic identity in a child was the single strongest predictor of high expectations, linked to up to an 80 percentage-point jump for college-athlete forecasts and 35 points for pro or Olympic projections.
- Higher expectations were more common among Black and Latino parents, in majority-minority neighborhoods, among lower-SES families for pro/Olympic hopes, and among stronger sports fans.
- Published in the Journal of Sport and Social Issues, the study’s authors say the findings can guide targeted parent education and will inform a planned follow-up tracking actual outcomes and links to academic expectations.