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Study Finds Monsoon Rain Kills About 2,700 Mumbai Residents a Year, Far Exceeding Official Counts

A Nature analysis linking death records with sub‑daily rainfall and tide data reveals large undercounted health harms, pointing to urgent adaptation finance.

Overview

  • Researchers estimate 2,500–2,718 excess deaths each monsoon season during 2006–2015, more than 8% of monsoon fatalities and nearly ten times official tallies.
  • The study values mortality losses at about $1.2 billion per year, totaling roughly $12 billion over the decade examined.
  • Over 80% of rainfall-attributed deaths occurred among slum residents, with heightened risks for children under five and for women.
  • The team matched individual death records to hourly rainfall and tide heights across 89 postal codes, identifying impacts by age, gender, and slum status.
  • Projections indicate a 5 cm sea-level rise could lift rainfall-related mortality share by about 7% and a 15 cm rise by about 21%, a finding feeding policy discussions at COP30 on loss-and-damage and urban adaptation.