Overview
- The ETH Zürich–led team, publishing in Nature Climate Change, introduces “Peak Glacier Extinction” and projects 2,000–4,000 glacier losses per year between 2041 and 2055 depending on the scenario.
- The peak arrives earlier under lower warming—around 2041 at 1.5°C—and later but larger under higher warming—mid‑2050s at 4.0°C—before annual losses decline as fewer glaciers remain.
- Regions dominated by small glaciers, including the Alps, the Caucasus and the equatorial Andes, are projected to reach regional peaks soon, with more than half of their glaciers vanishing within the next two decades.
- By 2100 the global count diverges sharply by pathway, with about 96,000 glaciers remaining at 1.5°C versus roughly 18,000 at 4.0°C, and in Central Europe about 20 under 4.0°C or about 110 under a 2.7°C path.
- The authors acknowledge model uncertainties yet emphasize that near‑term policy choices will determine whether mid‑century losses are closer to 2,000 or to 4,000 glaciers each year.