Overview
- Analysis of two major colonies near Cape Town reports about 62,000 adult deaths from 2004 to 2011, documenting a prolonged starvation event.
- Sardine abundance stayed below roughly 25% of its maximum during the critical years, undermining penguin survival during breeding and molt.
- Fewer than 10,000 breeding pairs remain globally, and the species was placed on the IUCN Red List as Critically Endangered in 2024.
- South Africa has imposed a 10‑year commercial fishing ban around six colonies, with added measures including artificial nests, new colony sites and intensive monitoring.
- Scientists warn recovery hinges on sustained prey rebounds and effective fisheries management, with projections indicating possible disappearance in the wild by 2035 if declines continue.