Overview
- A peer-reviewed analysis finds Taftan’s summit rose about 9 centimeters (3.5 inches) from July 2023 to May 2024, and the deformation has not subsided.
- Satellite measurements recorded continuous venting of water vapor, carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, hydrogen sulfide and hydrogen fluoride, with SO2 averaging roughly 20 tons per day and larger events on May 16 and May 28, 2024.
- Geophysical modeling places the source 460–630 meters beneath the summit, consistent with pressurization of a shallow hydrothermal system and possible magmatic intrusion, with no clear external trigger identified.
- The team applied a common-mode filter to remove atmospheric noise from radar data, allowing the detection of subtle ground movement that had previously been obscured.
- Authors recommend reclassifying Taftan as dormant and strengthening monitoring and hazard maps across the Makran arc, stressing that an eruption is not considered imminent but nearby Iranian and Pakistani communities face credible risks.