Overview
- A National Bureau of Economic Research working paper released in June 2026 estimates that iPhone diffusion from 2007 to 2011 explains roughly 33–52% of the drop in U.S. fertility for women aged 15–44, with the largest percentage declines for teens and adults aged 20–24.
- The authors link the effect to concrete behavioral changes documented in surveys and time‑use data, including large drops in in‑person peer time, lower frequency of partnered sex, greater searches for pornography, and easier online access to contraception information.
- The paper’s identification rests on Apple’s exclusive U.S. deal with AT&T from June 2007 to February 2011, using geographic variation in AT&T coverage to compare early iPhone access areas with places that gained access later.
- An independent University of Cincinnati analysis of World Bank data in 128 countries finds a similar pattern of faster teen fertility declines after smartphone and high‑speed internet expansion, but experts stress the NBER paper is a working paper that needs replication and may not capture nonrandom rollout or long‑running trends.
- If behavioral change is a major driver, standard fiscal responses such as cash transfers or childcare subsidies may have limited effect on birth rates, and the findings raise questions about long‑term labor supply, aging populations, and how policy should weigh structural versus social causes.