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Study Finds Human-Caused Warming Intensified Western Europe Heatwave by 2–4 °C

A rapid attribution study released July 9 quantifies how fossil fuel emissions boosted temperatures, placing the preliminary death toll at about 2 300.

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Des touristes se protègent du soleil en face de la colline de l'Acropole à Athènes, le 8 juillet 2025 en Grèce
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Anomalies quotidiennes de la température de surface de la mer en Méditerranée occidentale de 1979 à 2025, par rapport à la moyenne de 1991-2020, en °C, d'après les données de Copernicus

Overview

  • The study shows anthropogenic warming increased late-June to early-July temperatures in major cities such as Paris, London and Madrid by between 2 °C and 4 °C.
  • Researchers applied counterfactual climate modeling to compare observed heatwave intensity with a hypothetical scenario absent massive fossil fuel emissions.
  • Preliminary findings attribute roughly 2 300 premature deaths to the heatwave between June 23 and July 2, with about 1 500 fatalities linked directly to the additional warming.
  • Sustained daytime extremes and consecutive tropical nights amplified risks for vulnerable groups including the elderly, young children and outdoor workers.
  • European health authorities caution that official mortality figures will take several weeks to finalize as governments evaluate adaptation and mitigation measures.