Overview
- A peer‑reviewed paper published in August 2026 analyzed five major temperature records and used two statistical methods to remove short‑term natural swings and detect a change in trend around 2013–2014 with greater than 98% confidence.
- The authors estimate the warming rate rose to about 0.35°C per decade for 2015–2025 compared with roughly 0.2°C per decade from 1970–2015, based on the filtered datasets.
- The analysis explicitly removed influences from El Niño events, volcanic eruptions, and solar variability, so the detected acceleration is not simply the result of recent record El Niño years.
- The paper does not assign a single cause; it points to continued greenhouse‑gas emissions and a possible drop in aerosol cooling as plausible contributors while stressing substantial uncertainty remains.
- If the recent rate continues, the study warns the long‑term global average could exceed the Paris 1.5°C threshold before 2030, which would raise the odds of more frequent heatwaves, floods, wildfires and long‑lasting ecosystem damage and make rapid CO2 cuts urgent.