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Study Finds Deforestation Accounts for Most Amazon Rainfall Loss

New analysis links falling rains to deforestation, sharpening the stakes for COP30 in Belém.

Overview

  • The Nature Communications study attributes roughly 75% of recent precipitation decline to tree loss across 29 Brazilian subregions and links about 2°C of regional warming since 1985 to multiple drivers, with deforestation responsible for around 16%.
  • Scientists describe a weakening forest “water pump,” noting Amazon trees recycle more than 40% of rains through transpiration and that the dry season now shows a marked drop in daily showers.
  • Pressure on the forest remains high, with Brazil’s space agency reporting deforestation up 27% in the first half of 2025 versus a year earlier after more than 16 million hectares burned in 2024.
  • Monitoring shows mixed short‑term signals, as MapBiomas reports a 65% fall in July fires in the Brazilian Amazon but an approximately 4% rise in deforestation over the past year.
  • Companies tout regeneration efforts ahead of COP30, with Natura saying its Amazon program works with 46 communities, has helped conserve 2.2 million hectares and targets 3 million by 2030.