Overview
- The Kiel Institute estimates about 96% of tariff costs were borne by U.S. importers and consumers, with roughly 4% absorbed by foreign exporters.
- The study draws on shipment-level data covering nearly $4 trillion in trade and matches tariffs to individual consignments.
- Sharp tariff hikes in August 2025 on India and Brazil showed exporters held unit prices steady while cutting shipment volumes by up to about 24%.
- U.S. customs receipts rose by roughly $200 billion in 2025, effectively operating as a selective consumption tax that raised costs and reduced choice.
- Methodological critiques question the precision of the 96% estimate, while economists warn of lagged pass‑through to consumer prices in 2026 and the Supreme Court’s ruling on tariff legality has been pushed to late February.