Overview
- The University of Victoria Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium published a Nature Climate Change paper on Monday that used observations through the end of 2025 to assess warming in each IPCC AR6 region.
- By the end of 2025, every IPCC region had reached about 90–94% of the warming expected in a 1.5°C world, with the global land average about 1.9°C above preindustrial levels.
- Warming is highly uneven: northwestern North America is near 3°C of warming while ocean-influenced regions such as southern South America, Southeast Asia and New Zealand show much less warming.
- Researchers project most regions will hit their 1.5°C-equivalent around 2029, and they say the findings should guide immediate adaptation, planning and engineering for buildings and large infrastructure.
- The study adds regional detail to recent UNEP analysis that flagged a likely 1.5°C overshoot and shifts policy focus toward shortening any overshoot while scaling adaptation at national and local levels.