Overview

• A peer-reviewed Frontiers in Climate study estimates 82 excess deaths in Maui County in August 2023, representing a 67% increase over expected mortality.
• During the week of August 19, the local death rate spiked to 367% above expected levels.
• Roughly 80% of the excess deaths occurred outside medical settings, 12 percentage points higher than typical months, indicating many people could not reach care.
• The excess-death estimate is below Maui’s official August fatality count of 102 and close to the CDC’s figure of 88 fire-related deaths, underscoring differences in methods and timing.
• Researchers trained their model on 2018–2023 county data while excluding COVID-19 deaths, acknowledged limits on cause-of-death detail and geographic precision, and urged removing flammable invasive vegetation, restoring Native Hawaiian agroecological systems, and ensuring rapid access to emergency care.