Overview
- Under a high-emissions pathway, more than 5,500 hazardous coastal facilities face a 1-in-100-year flood by 2100, dropping to about 5,138 under a lower-emissions scenario.
- Nearly 3,800 sites are projected to face flooding threats by 2050, indicating much of the near-term risk is already locked in.
- Seven states—Florida, New Jersey, California, Louisiana, New York, Massachusetts and Texas—account for nearly 80% of facilities at risk.
- The at-risk sites include 44% fossil-fuel ports and terminals, 30% power plants, 24% refineries and 22% sewage treatment facilities.
- Communities near these sites have higher shares of low-income renters, Hispanic residents, linguistically isolated and car-less households and older adults; experts warn of acute and long-term health harms from contaminated floodwaters, and the authors note exclusions such as pipelines and some storm-intensity effects that could shift estimates.