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3mo ago

Study Finds 2% Chance of Milky Way–Andromeda Collision in 5 Billion Years

Factoring in the Large Magellanic Cloud’s gravitational influence shifts the long-term collision odds with Andromeda to roughly 50% over the next 10 billion years.

Three images show different scenarios for how the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies could interact in the future. At top left, two spiral galaxies pass each other at a large distance. At top right, two spiral galaxies are closer together, their invisible gas halos interacting. The bottom image shows the collision of two spiral galaxies, resulting in an X-shaped patch.
Image
Image: NASA/JPL-Caltech

Overview

  • Researchers ran 100,000 simulations grounded in over ten years of Hubble and Gaia observations to model the Local Group’s future.
  • Factoring in the Large Magellanic Cloud’s gravity cut the risk of a Milky Way–Andromeda collision to 2% within the next 5 billion years.
  • The study finds an approximately 50% probability of merging within 10 billion years as orbital energy gradually dissipates during repeated encounters.
  • Most scenarios forecast a Milky Way merger with the Large Magellanic Cloud in under 2 billion years.
  • Scientists caution that even with advanced datasets, predictions for the Local Group’s evolution remain uncertain due to remaining observational limits.