Overview
- Researchers estimate a 9.1×10⁻⁵ annual impact probability for asteroids over 140 meters, equating to roughly a 1-in-156 chance during a 71-year lifetime.
- The preprint study simulates five million near-Earth asteroids over 140 meters to calculate an average impact recurrence of about 11,000 years, and is slated for publication in the Planetary Science Journal.
- Authors frame this risk by comparing it with familiar lifetime odds—such as a 1-in-16,260 chance of being struck by lightning—to make cosmic collision probabilities intuitive.
- Refined orbits based on ground and space telescopes, including JWST data, have ruled out any imminent Earth strike by cataloged asteroids like 2024 YR4, which now carries a minor (~4.3%) lunar-impact risk in 2032.
- The analysis highlights that impacts are theoretically preventable, citing NASA’s DART deflection test and ongoing tracking campaigns as cornerstones of planetary defense planning.