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Study Estimates 82 Excess Deaths in Maui During August 2023 Wildfires, Deadliest Week Saw 367% Spike

The analysis points to deaths outside medical settings as evidence of dangerous disruptions in access to care.

© U.S. Coast Guard Hawai'i Pacific District 14, via Wikimedia Commons
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Overview

  • Researchers report a 67% rise in Maui’s overall death rate for August 2023, totaling 82 excess deaths compared with historical expectations.
  • During the week of August 19, the local death rate was about 367% higher than expected, marking the period’s sharpest surge.
  • Roughly 80% of the excess deaths occurred outside medical settings, a jump from 68% in other months, suggesting many people could not reach treatment.
  • The team modeled all-cause excess mortality using Maui County data from August 2018 to July 2023 while excluding COVID‑19 deaths, and they note limits such as no cause-specific or Lāhainā-level attribution and a short study window.
  • The authors urge wildfire prevention and preparedness reforms that include removing flammable invasive grasses and restoring Native Hawaiian agroecological systems.