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3d ago

Study Doubles Thwaites Glacier’s 2100 Sea-Level Threat

A revised model finds tidal pumping in a broad grounding zone lets warm seawater erode ice from below and increases the chance the glacier will unpin from a key seabed ridge.

The high cliffs of Thwaites Glacier taken from the British Antarctic Survey Twin Otter aircraft.
Photo: British Antarctic Survey
Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica, known as the “Doomsday Glacier,” is melting faster than earlier projections, a new study says.
The total collapse of Thwaites Glacier would contribute an estimated 65cm to global sea level rise.

Overview

  • Researchers who calibrated ice-sheet physics to over two decades of satellite data report the glacier could add up to 30 millimetres (1.2 inches) to global sea level by 2100, about twice earlier estimates.
  • The team used ICEYE synthetic-aperture radar and other observations to replace the narrow 'grounding line' idea with a multi-kilometre 'grounding zone' where tides pump seawater several kilometres beneath grounded ice, driving intense basal melting.
  • When the grounding-zone processes are included, the revised model reconstructs historical change roughly four times larger than conventional models captured and yields larger future ice loss.
  • Simulations show about a 60 percent probability that Thwaites will unpin from the Mouginot Ridge by 2100, which would expose the glacier to a retrograde bed that can speed retreat and amplify downstream ice loss.
  • Direct observations remain sparse beneath the ice, so the authors plan a 2028 expedition to deploy instruments under Thwaites to measure seawater flushing and reduce uncertainty about future coastal flood risk.