Overview

• Germany will fold its national system into the EU emissions trading for buildings and transport in 2027, replacing the fixed €55-per-tonne charge with market-priced certificates.
• Forecasts cited in the reports point to roughly €100–€250 per tonne by 2030, with early ETS years seen around €100–€130, signaling higher household energy bills.
• Enpal estimates for a 95 m², four-person home show extra annual costs for gas heating of about €125–€570 in efficiency class C and €314–€1,425 in class G.
• For oil heating, the study projects about €162–€736 (class C) and €405–€1,841 (class G) per year, while coal use—though rare—would face the highest increases.
• Exposure is concentrated in gas-heavy cities such as Wilhelmshaven, Oldenburg and Neuwied and in oil pockets like Schwäbisch Gmünd, Offenburg and Bergheim, with upgrades like heat pumps and insulation reducing risk as Klimageld remains unrealized and policy relief shifts to other measures.