Overview
- The study, published May 27, 2026, used a three-dimensional hail-growth model tested on more than 14,000 storms and found a 38 to 47 percent rise in storms that produce large, damaging hail by the end of the century.
- Storms that produce smaller hailstone sizes are projected to decline by about 4 to 8 percent because a warmer mid-level atmosphere causes small stones to melt before reaching the ground.
- The physical driver is simple: warmer air holds more moisture and increases the energy available to storms, which strengthens updrafts that let hailstones grow bigger while leaving smaller stones more likely to melt.
- Projected changes vary by region, with mid-to-high latitudes such as parts of Argentina, Europe, Canada and the U.S. Northern Plains most at risk, while many tropical and subtropical areas may see reduced hail hazard.
- Authors and outside experts warn of key limits to the forecast because hail is highly local and global climate models cannot resolve individual storms, yet the finding matters for insurers, builders and farmers given current annual losses measured in billions of dollars.