Overview
- The ISM non-manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4 in October as new orders strengthened to 56.2, while prices paid hit 70.0 and the employment index remained in contraction at 48.2.
- ADP reported a 42,000 increase in private payrolls, offering a rare jobs signal during the federal data blackout from the prolonged shutdown, which the CBO says could shave 1.0–2.0 percentage points from fourth-quarter GDP.
- U.S. Treasury yields moved higher and traders reduced the odds of a December Federal Reserve rate cut after the stronger services and prices readings.
- The U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments over the legality of sweeping tariffs, with a ruling expected next year that leaves current duties in place and trade-policy uncertainty unresolved.
- Global services PMIs showed broad resilience, with the UK and Japan strengthening, Canada returning to slight expansion at 50.5, and India easing to a still-solid 58.9.