Overview
- Landfall is forecast late today in Northern California, with the precipitation band shifting south and peak impacts expected across central and southern coastal counties on Thursday into Friday.
- CW3E projects strong atmospheric river conditions with IVT over 750 kg m⁻¹ s⁻¹ along the coast, with ensemble guidance indicating AR2–AR3 intensity.
- The Weather Prediction Center expects storm totals of 2–4 inches across major mountain ranges and 1–2 inches in many coastal and valley areas, with hourly rates near 0.5 inch possible.
- Freezing levels are forecast to drop from around 14,000 feet to below 5,000 feet by Friday, supporting significant Sierra Nevada snow with a greater than 50% chance of more than 24 inches at Tuolumne Meadows by early Saturday.
- Officials highlight risks of coastal and roadway flooding influenced by recent King Tides, debris flows near recent burn scars, strong gusts in some corridors, and continued uncertainty in exact timing and local intensity.